Randy Inman
Bruce Bostwick
James Rickard
jesse-podoll
Robin PottratzNFL Draft Stock: Rises and Falls Explained
February 26th 2009 23:57
Being a 'guaranteed' top 10 pick in the NFL draft in January does not guarantee you will hold the same status come the NFL draft in April. Why is that?
After a college football season wraps up - early January if you are on a good enough team - you could be considered the consensus #1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Then, with a Senior Bowl - if your a senior - a combine, and a Pro Day left standing between you and being drafted - your stock could have plummeted to a mid-1st rounder - or worse. On only three days of physical workouts. Ridiculous.
A few reasons add or take away your value as an NFL prospect after the college season wraps up - and they are team needs, free agency, injury, individual workout effort, individual attitude and most of all media perception. Of course, these factors vary in both weight on your value and timing of you being picked. Let's look at all of them.
Team Needs
Once the draft order is set, an NFL prospect can get a pretty accurate read on the top teams in the draft - and the team needs.
Example: This year Detroit has very obvious needs for a QB and an OL - so sorry WR's, but your chances of going #1 overall are slim to none.
Free Agency
Of course, team needs can vary depending on good old free agency.
Example: Detroit picks up Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner or Kerry Collins via free agency. Well, guess what Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford - you are not going #1 overall in the NFL draft.
Injuries
Injuries are the crutch of anything being a 'sure bet' in sports.
Example: Ask Michael Crabtree how he's feeling about his draft status right now.
Individual Workout Effort
A poor combine can spell doom for a NFL draft prospect. Granted its only a couple days worth of working out - and that should not take precedence over your college career, but it does.
Example: This year's top DB's Vontae Davis and Malcom Jenkins didn't perform very well in the speed drills, and now the DB pool is considered wide open.
Individual Attitude
The workouts for NFL scouts are as much about allowing them to get your physical stats - as they are allowing them to gauge you mentally.
Example: Andre Smith and Rey Maualuga both considered the top at their positions after their final college snap have mystified some scouts and severely hurt their stock with their actions during the workouts.
Media Perception
Let's face it - this one shouldn't effect an NFL scouts thoughts or mindset on a player. But it does - to the effect that if everyone is talking about a player - you might be more apt to give him a second or more in-depth look.
Example: Prior to making some eye-popping moves in the workouts, Darrius Heywood-Bey was barely a blip on anyone's radar. Look how the added media attention has helped his stock rise.
All and all - from a fan's point of view - you really can't put much into the rise and fall of a player's draft stock between the months of January through April. It's going to happen. Things are going to happen that effect his stock. Then again - our perception doesn't really matter anyway - we aren't making the million dollar picks...
After a college football season wraps up - early January if you are on a good enough team - you could be considered the consensus #1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Then, with a Senior Bowl - if your a senior - a combine, and a Pro Day left standing between you and being drafted - your stock could have plummeted to a mid-1st rounder - or worse. On only three days of physical workouts. Ridiculous.
A few reasons add or take away your value as an NFL prospect after the college season wraps up - and they are team needs, free agency, injury, individual workout effort, individual attitude and most of all media perception. Of course, these factors vary in both weight on your value and timing of you being picked. Let's look at all of them.
Team Needs
Once the draft order is set, an NFL prospect can get a pretty accurate read on the top teams in the draft - and the team needs.
Example: This year Detroit has very obvious needs for a QB and an OL - so sorry WR's, but your chances of going #1 overall are slim to none.
Free Agency
Of course, team needs can vary depending on good old free agency.
Example: Detroit picks up Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner or Kerry Collins via free agency. Well, guess what Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford - you are not going #1 overall in the NFL draft.
Injuries
Injuries are the crutch of anything being a 'sure bet' in sports.
Example: Ask Michael Crabtree how he's feeling about his draft status right now.
Individual Workout Effort
A poor combine can spell doom for a NFL draft prospect. Granted its only a couple days worth of working out - and that should not take precedence over your college career, but it does.
Individual Attitude
The workouts for NFL scouts are as much about allowing them to get your physical stats - as they are allowing them to gauge you mentally.
Example: Andre Smith and Rey Maualuga both considered the top at their positions after their final college snap have mystified some scouts and severely hurt their stock with their actions during the workouts.
Media Perception
Let's face it - this one shouldn't effect an NFL scouts thoughts or mindset on a player. But it does - to the effect that if everyone is talking about a player - you might be more apt to give him a second or more in-depth look.
Example: Prior to making some eye-popping moves in the workouts, Darrius Heywood-Bey was barely a blip on anyone's radar. Look how the added media attention has helped his stock rise.
All and all - from a fan's point of view - you really can't put much into the rise and fall of a player's draft stock between the months of January through April. It's going to happen. Things are going to happen that effect his stock. Then again - our perception doesn't really matter anyway - we aren't making the million dollar picks...
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